Is College a Worthwhile Investment 28 June 2009
Posted by Lao Tzu in business, economy, sociology, technology.add a comment
As I predicted, soon, in the US, college would end up being a bad investment from a business perspective. There is now a recent article echoing these concerns. Of course, the real value of education depends on the individual and what they do with it, but the economic value must be evaluated from the resulting salary (multiplied by the probability of getting such as job and the years in service), vs. the full cost of acquiring the education needed for the position (including all living expenses and missed opportunity income and years of service). Hence, there will be a point, if it has not been realized already, where a good paying job that does not require a degree (and there are still some out there), will be a better investment (ecomomically) than a low paying 4 year degree.
There are many examples or individuals acquiring wealthy salaries without a college education (some actors, athletes, musicians, etc.). A common joke when fellow engineers make a brilliant accomplishment is, “Now if I could just hit a ball with a stick, I would be a millionaire.” However, this phenomenon is tempered by the low probability of scoring such an opportunity, based on the assumption that these positions are destined for the creme de la creme – which may or may not always be the case, but it is a safe assumption.
On the flip side, a weekend with a Java book will give someone all the necessary skills for a high tech position that would otherwise be reserved for someone with a 4 year degree.
Metro Tragedy & Economics 23 June 2009
Posted by Lao Tzu in business, economy, systems engineering.Tags: dc, metro, metro crash, plane crash
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We recently had a tragic train wreck here in the DC area, yesterday, where 2 Metro trains collided. Unfortunately, over the 2 days prior to the accident, I had 2 separate conversations with people explaining how I predicted that there would be more plane crashes due to the economic crisis. Unfortunately, I was correct. I have not checked the stats, but it appears there were more crashes on the news recently, and the reasons are related to economic crisis (for the cases where we have a good estimate of the cause). The rationale is straightforward. Airlines are typically running in the red and sensitive to consumer spending trends. They have little room to cut expenses during economic low points. Hence, critical areas get cut – maintenance labor, part replacements, pilot rest periods, training, and selection criteria are lowered to those with failing test scores. It was reported today that the train that crashed was overdue for brake replacements and that the Metro could not afford to keep up with maintenance. Is the same phenomenon occuring here?
False Advertising with Blogs 13 January 2009
Posted by Lao Tzu in advertising, business, law.Tags: acai berry, as seen on oprah, as seen on oz, deceptive advertising, dr. oz, fake blogs, false advertisement, mel's diet blog, oprah, weight loss
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False and decpetive advertising have really been on the rise over the last five years or so. But I think it is actually to the point that we have become complacent with it. Maybe its partly because most people see advertising more as entertainment than anything else. There is currently a rash of advertisements on the internet that promote a weight loss program with the catch phrase, “As Seen on Oprah”. Clicking on the ad takes you to one of several fake blogs. These are websites that look like blogs, and maybe really use blog software, but are pre-written by some advertising agency. One site had comments listed, but no way for someone to add new comments. They quickly got smarter and started allowing you to make comments. But the most important issue is that they have photos that are defintely fake. Mel’s Diet Blog is one such blog. It is an advertisement for Acai Berry. Notice that the woman’s hair is exactly the same in all photos, down to every curl, and the strand in front. Quite an achievement given the amount of time needed to loose that weight.
So advertising agency’s, continue to insult our intelligent. You only make yourself look stupid.
Credit Score Abuse 16 December 2008
Posted by Lao Tzu in business, customer service, economy, law, psychology, sociology.Tags: credit, credit score, insurance
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For at least 10 years now, businesses have been using credit scores for more than just a determination on whether to lend someone money. They have been used as a metric of “character” for everything from car insurance rates to job qualifications. A Geico agent actually told me that they would pull my credit report to determine my insurance rates because they believed there was a correlation, specifically that individuals with low credit scores are more likely to have an accident. I was able to find an article discussing theories for such a relationship,but the cause and effect relationship has not been established. There are clearly many factors here that could be related at some point.
My point is that this is not what a credit scores measures or was intended to measure. Organizations are using this because it is a conveniently available metric, not because there is any validity to expanding its application beyond granting a loan. In fact, it’s not even good at that. The credit bureau databases are poorly designed and proned to errors in relating information from other people with you (e.g., people with same first and last name). Finally, others are talking about this. See this MSN news article.
Misuse of Computers 14 May 2008
Posted by Lao Tzu in business, computers, customer service, software engineering.Tags: computers, patient management, pizza hut, starbucks
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In the underrated movie, The Karate Kid, Mr. Miyagi (don’t criticize the spelling, it should be in Katakana), told Daniel,
“Karate Yes = OK
Karate No = OK, too
Karate Maybe = squash like a grape.”
The same could be said about the use of computers. In other words, I constantly see examples of small to large businesses using computers to partially do a particular job, and the end result is typically that the computer does not help them as much as actually hinder them. They get all the process constraints (e.g., I must fill out the form, I only have the information it is giving me, it won’t let me do that); without any of the benefits (e.g., automation, workflow, database).
There are many great examples from small businesses like Starbucks and Pizzza Hut; to large, complex operations like hospitals. Hospitals are getting better, but Starbucks and most pizza places are just too fun to watch in action.
In other words, if your computer is not automating some part of your work (e.g., it is merely an expensive typewriter), you are probably not getting any benefit out of it, and it is only hindering your business.
Computers Yes = OK
Computers No = OK, too
Computers somewhat = bad customer service!
